CFS 102: Macroeconomics & Global Trade
| Course Code | CFS 102 |
| Course Name | Macroeconomics & Global Trade |
| Department | Business |
| Semester Offered | Even (usually Term 2) |
| Tuition Hours | 30 hours |
| Course Level | Intermediate |
| Pre-requisite | FTM 101: Foundations of Finance & Capital Markets |
| Co-requisite | FTM 102, QMA 102, TFS 102 |
| Course Objective | Markets do not move randomly. They respond to forces larger than any company or investor. Interest rates change, currencies shift, governments intervene, and capital flows across borders in search of opportunity and safety. This course trains students to read the world like an investor, not a spectator. GDP, inflation, monetary policy, trade deficits, and geopolitical events are not abstract ideas. They are inputs into every serious investment decision. Using the UAE as a living case study, students will understand how a modern economy is constructed, how it attracts global capital, and how policy decisions translate into market outcomes. By the end of this course, macroeconomics should feel less like theory and more like a decision-making framework for capital allocation. |
| Course Philosophy | This course emphasizes
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| Course Learning Outcomes | Upon successful completion of this course, students will be able to:
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| Course Author | Sagar Udasi MSc Statistics and Data Science with Computational Finance from The University of Edinburgh. Contact: sagar.l.udasi@gmail.com |
| Course Organiser | TBD |
| No. | Lecture Title | Concepts Covered | Lecture Objective |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Why Markets Care About GDP (Even When You Shouldn't) | GDP calculation, components (C, I, G, X-M), limitations | Build intuition on what GDP actually tells investors and when it misleads them in portfolio decisions |
| 02 | Inflation: The Silent Destroyer of Wealth | CPI, WPI, inflation types, real vs nominal returns | Understand how inflation erodes returns and why it is central to portfolio strategy |
| 03 | The Interest Rate Lever That Moves Everything | Central bank tools, policy rates, yield curves | Learn how interest rates impact equities, bonds, and capital flows |
| 04 | What Central Banks Are Really Trying to Control | Monetary policy goals, liquidity, inflation targeting | Decode central bank behavior and translate it into actionable investment insights |
| 05 | When Money Becomes Cheap (and Dangerous) | Liquidity cycles, quantitative easing, asset bubbles | Connect liquidity conditions to asset price inflation and market risks |
| 06 | The Bond Market Is Smarter Than You Think | Bond pricing, yields, term structure | Understand why bond markets often signal economic shifts before equities |
| 07 | Currency Wars You Didn't Know You Were Part Of | Exchange rates, currency regimes, forex markets | Learn how currency movements affect global portfolios and investment returns |
| 08 | Trade Deficits: Problem or Power Move? | Balance of payments, trade deficits, capital flows | Analyze how countries like the US sustain deficits and what it means for investors |
| 09 | Oil, Gold, and the Politics of Commodities | Commodity markets, pricing dynamics, geopolitical influence | Understand how commodities act as macro indicators and portfolio hedges |
| 10 | The UAE: How to Build an Economy From Scratch | UAE economic model, diversification, sovereign wealth | Study a real-world system where policy, trade, and capital come together |
| 11 | Sovereign Wealth Funds: The Smartest Money in the Room | SWFs, capital allocation strategies, global investments | Learn how large pools of capital think and invest across macro cycles |
| 12 | When Governments Intervene in Markets | Fiscal policy, subsidies, taxation, regulation | Understand how government actions distort or stabilize markets |
| 13 | Geopolitics Is a Financial Variable | Trade wars, sanctions, alliances | Translate geopolitical events into market risks and opportunities |
| 14 | Emerging Markets: Chaos or Opportunity? | Growth vs risk, currency volatility, capital flows | Evaluate emerging markets as part of a global investment strategy |
| 15 | Reading the Macro Dashboard Like an Investor | Combining indicators, dashboards, macro signals | Build a practical framework to interpret macro data for decision-making |
| 16 | Building Your First Macro Thesis | Structuring macro views, scenario analysis | Teach students to form and defend a coherent macro investment thesis |
| 17 | Linking Macro to Portfolio Allocation | Asset allocation strategies, diversification | Directly connect macro insights to capstone portfolio decisions |
| 18 | When Macro Predictions Go Wrong | Forecasting errors, uncertainty, model limits | Build humility and risk awareness in macro-driven investing |
| 19 | Stress Testing Your Portfolio Against the World | Scenario analysis, shocks, crisis simulation | Prepare students to handle real-world volatility in their capstone |
| 20 | Final Investment Committee: Defend Your Worldview | Presentation, argumentation, critique | Students present macro-driven investment strategies aligned with their live portfolio |
| Component | Weightage |
|---|---|
| Macro Thesis Report (Individual) | 25% |
| Portfolio Allocation Assignment (Linked to Capstone) | 25% |
| Class Participation & Macro Briefings | 20% |
| Final Investment Committee Presentation | 30% |
| Type | Resource | Provider |
|---|---|---|
| Lecture | Macroeconomics (Full Course) | MIT OpenCourseWare |
| Lecture | Principles of Economics | Prof. N. Gregory Mankiw |
| Reading | The Economic Times Guide to the World Economy | The Economist |
| Reading | Principles of Economics | N. Gregory Mankiw |
| Podcast | Macro Voices | Hedge Fund Professionals |
| Data | World Economic Indicators | World Bank |